Costco tests the consumer as gold retreats

Costco was due to report quarterly results on Thursday, with consensus expectations around $6.53-$6.55 in earnings per share and $94.9 billion in revenue. The release offered a useful test of U.S. consumer resilience at a time when markets were reassessing inflation and interest rates.

Costco provides a read on household demand

Recent retail sales had risen 1.2%, while Costco’s quarterly net sales reached $93.9 billion, an 11.3% increase from a year earlier. A strong result could reinforce the view that household demand remained healthy. A weaker result could add to concerns that higher prices and borrowing costs were beginning to constrain spending.

That distinction mattered for the Federal Reserve. Firm consumption could keep inflation pressure in focus, whereas a clear slowdown would strengthen the case for a less restrictive path.

Gold pulls back after its advance

Gold had retreated after a strong run as investors responded to a firmer dollar and changing rate expectations. The pullback did not by itself invalidate the broader structure, but it brought short-term support into focus.

The levels that matter

The 50-day exponential moving average near $4,330 was the first technical reference. Below it, $4,250 formed the more important support area. Holding those levels would leave room for a recovery towards $4,400; a sustained break below support would point to a deeper correction.

Costco’s report and the reaction in rates and the dollar would help determine whether gold stabilised or extended its retreat.

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Original analysis by Miguel A. Rodriguez, dated 22 September 2026.

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